first you'll see a civil religious war Sunni's the majority settling old scores with the Shia's mostly hazari's and pagan nuristans then the tribes will go for power conciliation

politics at it's best over 10,000 cups of tea

the taliban are a homogenous group

and iran is 90% shiites

and pakastan is 90 % sunni's

location is everything when your 100% dependent on foreign aid