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Thread: Lumber Liquidators Laminate Flooring - Do you own any?

  1. #271

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  2. #272

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    Last edited by hookdfisherman; 02-22-2017 at 09:47 AM.

  3. #273

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    at the high times




    o' life...



    time for the resurrection...




    don't ya know...



























    Quote Originally Posted by DockRat View Post
    I'm a little cockrat short and stout here is my meme watch me pout... I love little brenty's cack cuz he loves me back... I got nothin better to do, oops is dat poo?

    Gfy : (Go fishin' ya)






























    punk .








    10-4 **** rat, cumback...







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    V
    Last edited by hookdfisherman; 03-22-2017 at 06:44 AM.

  4. #274

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    Quote Originally Posted by hookdfisherman View Post
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    at the high times




    o' life...



    time for the resurrection...




    don't ya know...






























    Gfy : (Go fishin' ya)






























    punk .








    10-4 cook rat, cumback...







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    V

    Lumber Liquidators' valuation no longer appears reasonable after surging since the Q4 report.
    New filings in Florida and with the USPTO show that LL's founder will re-enter the flooring market as a major competitor.
    Cabinets To Go, a Tennessee-based private entity with 54 locations and owned by Tom Sullivan, will begin selling flooring in May 2017.
    Tom Sullivan is Lumber Liquidators' worst competitive nightmare.



    On December 31, 2016, Tom Sullivan, the founder and former CEO of Lumber Liquidators (NYSE:) resigned. Mr. Sullivan built an amazing business over the last two decades, and is a genius at getting people in the doors and selling floors. However, once the company hired Jeffrey Griffiths to guide the firm through its initial public offering, Sullivan's position became more titular than functional as he served as a figurehead and cultural leader. As LL became a publicly traded company, he gradually stepped away from operations until 2015 when in the midst of the 60 Minutes/formaldehyde debacle, former CEO Rob Lynch unexpectedly stepped down. LL was in crisis mode, and returning to the core principle of selling "Good Wood at Good Prices" was its reflexive response. Therefore, Sullivan was brought back in as CEO to help right the ship. However, running a public company, answering to investors on a quarterly basis and explaining incremental changes in margins and comp sales is a real pain for a guy who excels at building businesses.





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  5. #275

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    Net loss for the first quarter of 2017 was $26.4 million, or a loss of $0.93 per diluted share, as compared to a net loss of $32.4 million, or $1.20 per diluted share, during the prior year period. The net loss and per share amounts for the quarter ended March 31, 2017 do not include the application of tax benefits to the pre-tax loss amount.









    Despite a $26M loss for the quarter, LL is winning...

    riding the chrump chrain o'course

    Hop aboard, ALL ABOARD!


    This orient express will be heading to N. Korea

    with a special delivery





    from President Donald J.,

    Fat Asian boy'LL listen or he wont...

    either way our president will make his decision

    and the world will also be on board...

    might as well enjoy the ride...

    go fish,

    sit on a boat or by a lake,

    hang with friends or family,

    find someone who's not catching

    and teach 'em how to hook'd one...

    the secret of life is enjoying the passage of time...




    Anyone can do it...











    *jt*







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    Last edited by hookdfisherman; 05-02-2017 at 03:45 AM.

  6. #276

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    Quote Originally Posted by hookdfisherman View Post
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    Net loss for the first quarter of 2017 was $26.4 million, or a loss of $0.93 per diluted share, as compared to a net loss of $32.4 million, or $1.20 per diluted share, during the prior year period. The net loss and per share amounts for the quarter ended March 31, 2017 do not include the application of tax benefits to the pre-tax loss amount.









    Despite a $26M loss for the quarter, LL is winning...

    riding the chrump chrain o'course

    Hop aboard, ALL ABOARD!


    This orient express will be heading to N. Korea

    with a special delivery





    from President Donald J.,

    Fat Asian boy'LL listen or he wont...

    either way our president will make his decision

    and the world will also be on board...

    might as well enjoy the ride...

    go fish,

    sit on a boat or by a lake,

    hang with friends or family,

    find someone who's not catching

    and teach 'em how to hook'd one...

    the secret of life is enjoying the passage of time...




    Anyone can do it...











    *jt*







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    LL
    $20.32
    -4.09 (-16.75%)



    Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc. | NYSE




    guess the stockholders are not enjoying their passage of time...




    fell even more...




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    Last edited by hookdfisherman; 05-02-2017 at 10:19 AM.

  7. #277

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    Quote Originally Posted by hookdfisherman View Post
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    LL
    $20.32
    -4.09 (-16.75%)



    Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc. | NYSE




    guess the stockholders are not enjoying their passage of time...




    fell even more...




    Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	49850




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    LL Holdings Inc. Stock Up 14% Today: Here's What Investors Need to Know


    The flooring retailer just got a big bullish upgrade from a Wall Street analyst. That's good, but there's a long-term story that's more important. May 10, 2017 at 3:30PM


    What happened


    Shares of potential turnaround story LL Holdings Inc. () were up 13.7% at 2:40 p.m. EDT on May 10, following an upgrade by the analyst at W Securities who covers the company. According to a note on his decision to upgrade the stock, analyst Seth B increased his stock price target from $22 to $27, on expectations that the company is positioned for growth, after a number of tough quarters struggling under negative publicity related to Chinese-made laminate flooring it no longer sells.


    Today's move up helped LL shares recover most of the big drop following its earnings release in early May, and as of this writing shares are up nearly 57% so far in 2017.




    So what
    In general, B makes some good points about where LL stands today. The company's reputation has improved consistently over the past few quarters, as time helps distance it from the (mostly disproved) allegations that it was selling a potentially hazardous product. And this has helped lead to a steady recovery, with same-store sales (comps) up three quarters in a row.


    At the same time, the company is still burning cash, and faces significant legal risk, with ongoing securities and product litigation.


    On the cash front, LL does have a decent buffer of cash and revolving credit, and is set to generate positive cash flows in coming quarters, after major inventory investments ahead of its busiest season in the spring. There was also a shot of positive news on the legal front last quarter, with the company announcing that it was taking an $18 million charge ahead of a potential settlement in its biggest legal challenge related to the Chinese-made laminate.




    Now what
    There's still risk with LL, since it is still losing money, and the legal issues are unresolved. But the risk-reward balance has indeed improved in recent quarters, as comps growth has helped improve margins and cash flows are set to improve as well. Furthermore, the potential for a settlement of the Chinese-made laminate lawsuits would be a major step forward for the company and its shareholders.


    Add in a generally strong economy, with improving jobs numbers and a strong housing market, and there are multiple positive factors for the company. But as long as legal issues and negative cash flows remain, there's still above-average risk that investors shouldn't ignore.


    10 stocks we like better than LL
    When investing geniuses D and T G have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade, S Advisor, has tripled the market.*


    D and T just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to buy right now… and LL wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think these 10 stocks are even better buys.


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  8. #278
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Camarillo
    Posts
    396

    Default

    Last edited by anchor3n1; 05-15-2017 at 04:59 PM.

  9. #279

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    Quote Originally Posted by anchor3n1 View Post


    Quote Originally Posted by Brent View Post
    Agree!
    The best analogy I've heard regarding whatzizname supporters was by Bill Maher last weekend. Something like this.
    "It's like finding a finger in your chili and going ahead and eating it because you already told everyone how great the chili was".

    Quote Originally Posted by hookdfisherman View Post
    When I read a post on a thread, I always look at the author... just to gauge where it might be coming from and heading towards.

    Yeah, just as a I thought...

    Thick brown gooey stuff found on a digit like appendix, eat it anyways?....

    Sounds about right from this poster.

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    my analysis comes from an anal y sis of brenty boy's previous response from another thread...

    along with his propensity to out himself to the fishing world...

    looking to catch worms,



    dirty brown covered gooey little worms I'd imagine

    (you'll have to ask him... or he just may want to tell you that bill marred story again...

    hint, don't let him whisper it in your ear... unless you like brown tongue in yo
    ur cavum conchae)



    as opposed to real men who happen to use worms to catch fish... suckerfish that is...

    it's a running feud that can't be won lost or "drawn?"

    only drawn out...

    thanks for helping in this endeavor.






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  10. #280

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    Lumber Liquidators: Time To Liquidate Shares


    Jun. 5, 2017 12:40 PM ET Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc.




    Summary


    99% of outstanding debt is due within 3-5 years - failure to refinance at favourable rates could imperil business.


    Tenuous connection between revenue and net income - if rising revenues cannot generate rising net income for this company, what can?


    Former founder of the company may start up his own company in direct competition with LL - this would increase risk to business model.


    ChartMasterPro downward target price of $21.00.


    Shares of Lumber Liquidators (NYSE:) are up about 101% over the past twelve months, and, in my opinion, current shareholders should count themselves lucky and move on to find greener pastures elsewhere. Those who are considering buying shares at these levels should avoid them. I'll outline my reasoning below by reviewing the financial history here, along with providing a model for the future of the company based on the retained earnings growth.


    Three Troubling Things About Lumber Liquidator's Financial History


    When reviewing Lumber Liquidators' financial history, there are many things that jump off the page, none of them good. For instance, the level of long-term debt has ballooned in a very short time (from zero in 2014 to ~$72 million today). Additionally, 99% of this debt is due within 3-5 years, suggesting some risk to the capital structure in a few years. If the company isn't able to refinance at favourable rates, the business could be imperiled.


    Also troublesome is the dilution that's happened over the past few years. Obviously a company like Lumber Liquidators is subject to the business cycle and will enjoy good times and suffer bad times. How management reacts to that fact is what matters most to me. Some management teams react in ways that benefit shareholders. Some management teams take actions that harm shareholders. Management at lumber liquidators has diluted the shareholder base from 2015 onward. There's no reason to believe that this dilution will not continue, so current shareholders should brace themselves for that.


    Finally, there is a tenuous connection between revenue and net income, which is the most damning problem in my view. When I review the relationship between a company's revenue and its net income, I like to see each growing in tandem. Ideally, I like to see net income rising at a faster rate than revenue, as that might indicate something about the scalability of the business. What I really get turned off by is a long term negative relationship between sales and net income. The idea here is that net income is the source of all sustainable shareholder returns, and if rising sales don't lead to that source of return, what on earth will? At some point the question has to be asked: when will rising sales lead to sustainable earnings?






    In the case of lumber liquidators, in particular, the relationship between revenue and net income is actually slightly negative (r=-.07) . Thus, it seems that the growing sales numbers that the bulls have held up as a reason to buy the shares, don't actually lead to the source of shareholder returns. Revenue has grown at a CAGR of about 6% since 2011, while net income has plummeted from ~$26 million to a loss of ~$65 million in the most recent year.


    Admittedly, the first quarter of 2017 has shown an improvement over the same period last year, but again we see the change in net income lagging the change in revenue. Specifically, revenue increased by about $14 million, while net income was only about $6 million better. This seems to be a recurring theme here.


    Modeling The Future Based On Retained Earnings


    Investors buy a future, rather than a past, and it's with that in mind that I want to present what I think is the most reasonable forecast of future prices that I can come up with. When I try my hand at the difficult task of predicting the future, I like to isolate only one variable and make changes to that one. I usually move the dividend, but of course that's not possible in this case. I'll model a future based on retained earnings instead.


    The retained earnings per share at Lumber Liquidators has been quite choppy over the years. It grew nicely from 2011 to 2014, before dropping by more than 50% since then. I'll take a longer term perspective and compare 2011 to the most recent retained earnings figure. Over the past 6.25 years, retained earnings has grown at a CAGR of about 4.8%. I'll use this as the basis for my forecast, in spite of the fact that the more recent data suggests a much lower (negative) retained earnings growth rate.






    When I hold all else constant and plug this growth rate into my model, I get a compounded return of about 4.75%, which I consider to be too low for all of the risks and the volatility here. Also, there are two additional notes of caution I'd like to add in regard to this forecast. First, there's a chance that my growth rate is too high because I happen to have chosen an reasonably "low" point in 2011. Second, my forecast is also made more risky in light of the inherent volatility here. This forecast is one of my more tentative ones, given how much the underlying series moves around. Even under relatively optimistic assumptions, though, I don't see much growth from here.


    Technical Snapshot


    As per our ChartMasterPro Daily Trade Model, the trend for LL would turn bearish with a daily close below $27.50. This would signal a bearish breakdown from a Descending Triangle Pattern on the daily charts which we see a topping pattern for the shares. From here we see the shares falling to the $21.00 level over the next three months.


    As you know, we like to anticipate technical breakouts when what we see on the charts supports our fundamental analysis. On Monday we will buy LL Put Options which will provide us with approximately 5x leverage on our SHORT trade (for details on the option, please visit our website). Our initial stop-loss exit signal will be a daily close above $30.50.


    For investors in the shares, we recommend that you sell to avoid any further drop in the share value.






    Conclusion


    Finally, I'd like to comment briefly on the relatively shallow and narrow moat around this business. Some have suggested that Lumber Liquidators is about to face stiff competition from its founder. Whether this alone represents an existential threat to the firm is anyone's guess, but it does highlight the lack of a sustainable moat here. If the founder is indeed able to launch a competing business, that is by definition a negative for Lumber Liquidators. It's with all of this in mind that I strongly recommend that investors avoid this name.


    Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in LL over the next 72 hours.

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