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Thread: El Nino Monster ?

  1. #1
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    Default El Nino Monster ?

    Any weather Guru's think this could be true ? Good fishing ? Floods ?
    See pics and graphs at link.
    DR

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_te...a_monster.html

    El Niņo Could Grow Into a Monster, New Data Show

    By Eric Holthaus

    The odds are increasing that an El Niņo is in the works for 2014—and recent forecasts show it might be a big one.

    As we learned from Chris Farley, El Niņos can boost the odds of extreme weather (droughts, typhoons, heat waves) across much of the planet. But the most important thing about El Niņo is that it is predictable, sometimes six months to a year in advance.

    That’s an incredibly powerful tool, especially if you are one of the billions who live where El Niņo tends to hit hardest—Asia and the Americas. If current forecasts stay on track, El Niņo might end up being the biggest global weather story of 2014.


    The most commonly accepted definition of an El Niņo is a persistent warming of the so-called “Niņo3.4” region of the tropical Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii, lasting for at least five consecutive three-month “seasons.” A recent reversal in the direction of the Pacific trade winds appears to have kicked off a warming trend during the last month or two. That was enough to prompt U.S. government forecasters to issue an El Niņo watch last month.

    Forecasters are increasingly confident in a particularly big El Niņo this time around because, deep below the Pacific Ocean’s surface, off-the-charts warm water is lurking:
    FT-140407-ElNino.gif.CROP.promovar-mediu

    That giant red blob is a huge sub-surface wave of anomalously warm water that currently spans the tropical Pacific Ocean–big enough to cover the United States 300 feet deep. That’s a lot of warm water.

    Image: Australia Bureau of Meteorology
    As that blob of warm water moves eastward, propelled by the anomalous trade winds, it’s also getting closer to the ocean’s surface. Once that happens, it will begin to interact with the atmosphere, boosting temperatures and changing weather patterns.

    There are signs that this huge pool of sub-surface warmth is starting to emerge on the surface in recent days:
    BkYL0uTCUAIWF-y.png
    Which means that April 2014 could be the month the mega El Niņo gets officially underway.


    Now, before we get ahead of ourselves, meteorologist Cliff Mass warns that this time of year is known for lower performance in forecasting El Niņos. But in general, scientists who follow these things are anticipating what could become a strong event.

    “We’re carefully watching the potential development of an El Niņo later this spring and into summer,” said forecaster Tony Barnston of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society in a recorded briefing message. “Below the surface we have a lot of warming and that could eventually make its way to the surface and create an El Niņo.”

    The warm water just below the ocean’s surface is on par with that of the biggest El Niņo ever recorded, in 1997-98. That event caused $35 billion in damages and was blamed for around 23,000 deaths worldwide, according to the University of New South Wales. The 1997-98 El Niņo is also the only other time since records begin in 1980 that sub-surface Pacific Ocean water has been this warm in April.

    Climate change skeptics point to El Niņo-fueled 1998 as the year global warming “stopped.” Of course, global warming hasn’t stopped at all. The 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1998. The acceleration of that warming has slowed, though, compared with the previous breakneck pace during the late 20th century.

    One of the theories put forth by the mainstream scientific community to explain the slow-down since 1998 has been increased storage of warm water in the Pacific Ocean. If that theory is true, and if a major El Niņo is indeed in the works, the previously rapid rate of global warming could resume, with dramatic consequences.

    As I wrote last fall, the coming El Niņo could be enough to make 2014 the hottest year in recorded history, and 2015 could be even warmer than that. The 1997-98 super El Niņo was enough to boost global temperatures by nearly a quarter of a degree Celsius. If that scale of warming happens again, the world could approach a 1ēC departure from pre-industrial times as early as next year. As climate scientist James Hansen has warned, that’s around the highest that temperatures have ever been since human civilization began.
    Indeed, even the forecast is already having an effect: An index of global food prices reached a 10-month high in March, blamed in part on shortages an El Niņo may exacerbate.

    Here’s what else we could expect:
    A severe drought continues to rage in and around Indonesia, which an El Niņo would likely worsen.
    Peru’s anchovy catch may be significantly affected should a strong El Niņo materialize.
    Australia’s ongoing battles with bush fires may be intensified once its dry season resumes later this year.
    But perhaps the strangest impact so far has been in India, where monsoon forecasting is at the heart of national politics. The meteorology department there has accused U.S. weather forecasters of “spreading rumors” and colluding to ruin the Indian stock market by forecasting a return of El Niņo.

    Top Comment

    I predict in the next few years we'll hear "Global warming stopped in 2015" More...
    -FoolishChemist

    There’s a bit of good news, too: Hurricane seasons in the Atlantic tend to be less severe under this kind of forecast. And people in drought-stricken California could be forgiven if they’re crossing their fingers for a strong El Niņo, which is linked to some of the wettest years in state history. Still, it’s certainly no slam dunk that an El Niņo would be enough to end the crippling drought there or even bring above normal rainfall. And if the El Niņo ends up being as strong as current predictions indicate, there’s a chance it may even tip the scales from drought to deluge across the state, spurring damaging mudslides amid bursts of heavy rain. The two strongest El Niņos in the last 30 years—1982-83 and 1997-98—both caused widespread damage from flooding in California.
    Last edited by DockRat; 04-08-2014 at 10:15 PM.

  2. #2

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    The deep water ocean temps over parts of the Pacific Ocean are completely off the charts in their warmth something that has occurred during 2 of the strongest El Nino's in recorded history. Those 2 episodes happened to coincide with historically record years for rainfall in So Cal.

    Every month a new El Nino report comes out from the CPC and NOAA. I believe a new one is expected out soon or may have already been released I haven't checked but I think 2 more months will be needed to make sure.

    It is possible though that other climatological events could occur that even with the El Nino could cause us another below norm rain year. Many things pointed to a higher than normal rain year last year then crap happened and that forecast was a complete bust for some meteorologists.

    Lot's of hype for sure but patience is required before we get all excited about our creeks and rivers running strong again.

  3. #3

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    I didn't read your article since I've been spending quite a bit of time researching other articles and data, looks like your article says some of the same stuff after reading it.

  4. #4
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    Yup, I've been following this too. Let's pray this indeed translates to lots of rain. But fair warning, the global warming alarmists will jump all over this. Wasn't the last major El Nino event around '97 or '98? That's about the same time Algore started his GW crusade. Average global temps stopped warming well over 15 years ago and in fact we've had one of the coldest longest enduring winters in history. And didn't Algore say the coastlines would be wiped out due to rising oceans caused by so called global warming? Yet he still flies around the globe in his jet fuel devouring Gulf Stream jet that spews major amounts of GW gases, still drives around in an SUV motorcade, and just bought an OCEANFRONT home in Santa Barbara, and still lives in mansions that use as much energy as 5 of the average sized homes combined...
    Last edited by HawgZWylde; 04-09-2014 at 09:25 AM.

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by HawgZWylde View Post
    Yup, I've been following this too. Let's pray this indeed translates to lots of rain. But fair warning, the global warming alarmists will jump all over this. Wasn't the last major global warming event around '97 or '98? That's about the same time Algore started his GW crusade. Average global temps stopped warming well over 15 years ago and in fact we've had one of the coldest longest enduring winters in history. And didn't Algore say the coastlines would be wiped out due to rising oceans caused by so called global warming? Yet he still flies around the globe in his jet fuel devouring Gulf Stream jet that spews major amounts of GW gases, still drives around in an SUV motorcade, and just bought an OCEANFRONT home in Santa Barbara, and still lives in mansions that use as much energy as 5 of the average sized homes combined...
    Speaking of global warming, I just read the most interesting article a couple of days ago. The UN is fearing they can't stop the temp rising to the 2 degrees target figure they have set. The reason is the world economy is slow to spend the hundreds of Billions of dollars that is necessary to make that happen. That got me thinking, why not send a delegation of the Republican party to the UN to tell them it's all a HOAX and nobody needs to worry about anything!!!!!! I dare them to do it!!!!!! Especially when their biggest argument is the Demorats believe in it, so there for we DON'T!!!!!!!!! A piece of advice to anyone who wants to talk intelligently about the subject. Learn the difference between weather and climate. As soon as you start talking about weather and not climate you lose all credibility.
    Last edited by etucker1959; 04-09-2014 at 09:30 AM.

  6. #6
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    And the moment YOU talked about shooting Mountain Lions with a .22cal YOU lost ALL CREDIBILITY.

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by etucker1959 View Post
    Speaking of global warming, I just read the most interesting article a couple of days ago. The UN is fearing they can't stop the temp rising to the 2 degrees target figure they have set. The reason is the world economy is slow to spend the hundreds of Billions of dollars that is necessary to make that happen. That got me thinking, why not send a delegation of the Republican party to the UN to tell them it's all a HOAX and nobody needs to worry about anything!!!!!! I dare them to do it!!!!!! Especially when their biggest argument is the Demorats believe in it, so there for we DON'T!!!!!!!!! A piece of advice to anyone who wants to talk intelligently about the subject. Learn the difference between weather and climate. As soon as you start talking about weather and not climate you lose all credibility.
    Amazing you guys really have your stories all lined up real neat and pretty. I've been in other dialogue about global warming and the first thing out of the global warming crowd is that I don't know the difference between climate and weather, great talking point but it is nonsense! They are intertwined and one is dependent on the other to try and separate out the 2 is just another "tactic" being used to justify global warming believers.

    It is ridiculous when I make the argument we don't know what the weather is going to bring next month let alone in 50 years that this point always gets brought up by the left side. So I am to believe the climatologists are that much more accurate than the meteorologists?

    You guys must have some secret website you all go to for all your talking points because it is the same verbal or written diarrhea from all of you.
    Last edited by seal; 04-09-2014 at 10:15 AM.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by HawgZWylde View Post
    Yup, I've been following this too. Let's pray this indeed translates to lots of rain. But fair warning, the global warming alarmists will jump all over this. Wasn't the last major El Nino event around '97 or '98? That's about the same time Algore started his GW crusade. Average global temps stopped warming well over 15 years ago and in fact we've had one of the coldest longest enduring winters in history. And didn't Algore say the coastlines would be wiped out due to rising oceans caused by so called global warming? Yet he still flies around the globe in his jet fuel devouring Gulf Stream jet that spews major amounts of GW gases, still drives around in an SUV motorcade, and just bought an OCEANFRONT home in Santa Barbara, and still lives in mansions that use as much energy as 5 of the average sized homes combined...
    This is already being discussed. The year of an El Nino and a year or 2 following normally are way warmer than normal on an average. Since the global warming crowd is struggling to explain the cooler than normal temps as of late they will be waiting in the wings to jump on the NORMAL fluctuation in temperatures that occur during these NORMAL events.

  9. #9
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    Hawg lets put the article next to cliff and let the GWrs jump then.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by seal View Post
    Amazing you guys really have your stories all lined up real neat and pretty. I've been in other dialogue about global warming and the first thing out of the global warming crowd is that I don't know the difference between climate and weather, great talking point but it is nonsense! They are intertwined and one is dependent on the other to try and separate out the 2 is just another "tactic" being used to justify global warming believers.

    It is ridiculous when I make the argument we don't know what the weather is going to bring next month let alone in 50 years that this point always gets brought up by the left side. So I am to believe the climatologists are that much more accurate than the meteorologists?

    You guys must have some secret website you all go to for all your talking points because it is the same verbal or written diarrhea from all of you.
    Seal it's funny you mention about some secret website, I just got to my office and fired up the computer. Low and behold on the start page is an article about the 10 natural wonders you must see before their gone. Guess what?????? Everyone one of them will be destroyed by Global Warming as written by the authors. It would appear the only ones who deny Global Warming is real are the Republicans.
    Last edited by etucker1959; 04-09-2014 at 02:24 PM.

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