DockRat
04-08-2014, 10:13 PM
Any weather Guru's think this could be true ? Good fishing ? Floods ?
See pics and graphs at link.
DR
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/07/el_nino_2014_2015_forecasts_show_it_could_grow_int o_a_monster.html
El Niņo Could Grow Into a Monster, New Data Show
By Eric Holthaus
The odds are increasing that an El Niņo is in the works for 2014—and recent forecasts show it might be a big one.
As we learned from Chris Farley, El Niņos can boost the odds of extreme weather (droughts, typhoons, heat waves) across much of the planet. But the most important thing about El Niņo is that it is predictable, sometimes six months to a year in advance.
That’s an incredibly powerful tool, especially if you are one of the billions who live where El Niņo tends to hit hardest—Asia and the Americas. If current forecasts stay on track, El Niņo might end up being the biggest global weather story of 2014.
The most commonly accepted definition of an El Niņo is a persistent warming of the so-called “Niņo3.4” region of the tropical Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii, lasting for at least five consecutive three-month “seasons.” A recent reversal in the direction of the Pacific trade winds appears to have kicked off a warming trend during the last month or two. That was enough to prompt U.S. government forecasters to issue an El Niņo watch last month.
Forecasters are increasingly confident in a particularly big El Niņo this time around because, deep below the Pacific Ocean’s surface, off-the-charts warm water is lurking:
FT-140407-ElNino.gif.CROP.promovar-mediu
That giant red blob is a huge sub-surface wave of anomalously warm water that currently spans the tropical Pacific Ocean–big enough to cover the United States 300 feet deep. That’s a lot of warm water.
Image: Australia Bureau of Meteorology
As that blob of warm water moves eastward, propelled by the anomalous trade winds, it’s also getting closer to the ocean’s surface. Once that happens, it will begin to interact with the atmosphere, boosting temperatures and changing weather patterns.
There are signs that this huge pool of sub-surface warmth is starting to emerge on the surface in recent days:
BkYL0uTCUAIWF-y.png
Which means that April 2014 could be the month the mega El Niņo gets officially underway.
Now, before we get ahead of ourselves, meteorologist Cliff Mass warns that this time of year is known for lower performance in forecasting El Niņos. But in general, scientists who follow these things are anticipating what could become a strong event.
“We’re carefully watching the potential development of an El Niņo later this spring and into summer,” said forecaster Tony Barnston of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society in a recorded briefing message. “Below the surface we have a lot of warming and that could eventually make its way to the surface and create an El Niņo.”
The warm water just below the ocean’s surface is on par with that of the biggest El Niņo ever recorded, in 1997-98. That event caused $35 billion in damages and was blamed for around 23,000 deaths worldwide, according to the University of New South Wales. The 1997-98 El Niņo is also the only other time since records begin in 1980 that sub-surface Pacific Ocean water has been this warm in April.
Climate change skeptics point to El Niņo-fueled 1998 as the year global warming “stopped.” Of course, global warming hasn’t stopped at all. The 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1998. The acceleration of that warming has slowed, though, compared with the previous breakneck pace during the late 20th century.
One of the theories put forth by the mainstream scientific community to explain the slow-down since 1998 has been increased storage of warm water in the Pacific Ocean. If that theory is true, and if a major El Niņo is indeed in the works, the previously rapid rate of global warming could resume, with dramatic consequences.
As I wrote last fall, the coming El Niņo could be enough to make 2014 the hottest year in recorded history, and 2015 could be even warmer than that. The 1997-98 super El Niņo was enough to boost global temperatures by nearly a quarter of a degree Celsius. If that scale of warming happens again, the world could approach a 1ēC departure from pre-industrial times as early as next year. As climate scientist James Hansen has warned, that’s around the highest that temperatures have ever been since human civilization began.
Indeed, even the forecast is already having an effect: An index of global food prices reached a 10-month high in March, blamed in part on shortages an El Niņo may exacerbate.
Here’s what else we could expect:
A severe drought continues to rage in and around Indonesia, which an El Niņo would likely worsen.
Peru’s anchovy catch may be significantly affected should a strong El Niņo materialize.
Australia’s ongoing battles with bush fires may be intensified once its dry season resumes later this year.
But perhaps the strangest impact so far has been in India, where monsoon forecasting is at the heart of national politics. The meteorology department there has accused U.S. weather forecasters of “spreading rumors” and colluding to ruin the Indian stock market by forecasting a return of El Niņo.
Top Comment
I predict in the next few years we'll hear "Global warming stopped in 2015" More...
-FoolishChemist
There’s a bit of good news, too: Hurricane seasons in the Atlantic tend to be less severe under this kind of forecast. And people in drought-stricken California could be forgiven if they’re crossing their fingers for a strong El Niņo, which is linked to some of the wettest years in state history. Still, it’s certainly no slam dunk that an El Niņo would be enough to end the crippling drought there or even bring above normal rainfall. And if the El Niņo ends up being as strong as current predictions indicate, there’s a chance it may even tip the scales from drought to deluge across the state, spurring damaging mudslides amid bursts of heavy rain. The two strongest El Niņos in the last 30 years—1982-83 and 1997-98—both caused widespread damage from flooding in California.
See pics and graphs at link.
DR
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/07/el_nino_2014_2015_forecasts_show_it_could_grow_int o_a_monster.html
El Niņo Could Grow Into a Monster, New Data Show
By Eric Holthaus
The odds are increasing that an El Niņo is in the works for 2014—and recent forecasts show it might be a big one.
As we learned from Chris Farley, El Niņos can boost the odds of extreme weather (droughts, typhoons, heat waves) across much of the planet. But the most important thing about El Niņo is that it is predictable, sometimes six months to a year in advance.
That’s an incredibly powerful tool, especially if you are one of the billions who live where El Niņo tends to hit hardest—Asia and the Americas. If current forecasts stay on track, El Niņo might end up being the biggest global weather story of 2014.
The most commonly accepted definition of an El Niņo is a persistent warming of the so-called “Niņo3.4” region of the tropical Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii, lasting for at least five consecutive three-month “seasons.” A recent reversal in the direction of the Pacific trade winds appears to have kicked off a warming trend during the last month or two. That was enough to prompt U.S. government forecasters to issue an El Niņo watch last month.
Forecasters are increasingly confident in a particularly big El Niņo this time around because, deep below the Pacific Ocean’s surface, off-the-charts warm water is lurking:
FT-140407-ElNino.gif.CROP.promovar-mediu
That giant red blob is a huge sub-surface wave of anomalously warm water that currently spans the tropical Pacific Ocean–big enough to cover the United States 300 feet deep. That’s a lot of warm water.
Image: Australia Bureau of Meteorology
As that blob of warm water moves eastward, propelled by the anomalous trade winds, it’s also getting closer to the ocean’s surface. Once that happens, it will begin to interact with the atmosphere, boosting temperatures and changing weather patterns.
There are signs that this huge pool of sub-surface warmth is starting to emerge on the surface in recent days:
BkYL0uTCUAIWF-y.png
Which means that April 2014 could be the month the mega El Niņo gets officially underway.
Now, before we get ahead of ourselves, meteorologist Cliff Mass warns that this time of year is known for lower performance in forecasting El Niņos. But in general, scientists who follow these things are anticipating what could become a strong event.
“We’re carefully watching the potential development of an El Niņo later this spring and into summer,” said forecaster Tony Barnston of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society in a recorded briefing message. “Below the surface we have a lot of warming and that could eventually make its way to the surface and create an El Niņo.”
The warm water just below the ocean’s surface is on par with that of the biggest El Niņo ever recorded, in 1997-98. That event caused $35 billion in damages and was blamed for around 23,000 deaths worldwide, according to the University of New South Wales. The 1997-98 El Niņo is also the only other time since records begin in 1980 that sub-surface Pacific Ocean water has been this warm in April.
Climate change skeptics point to El Niņo-fueled 1998 as the year global warming “stopped.” Of course, global warming hasn’t stopped at all. The 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1998. The acceleration of that warming has slowed, though, compared with the previous breakneck pace during the late 20th century.
One of the theories put forth by the mainstream scientific community to explain the slow-down since 1998 has been increased storage of warm water in the Pacific Ocean. If that theory is true, and if a major El Niņo is indeed in the works, the previously rapid rate of global warming could resume, with dramatic consequences.
As I wrote last fall, the coming El Niņo could be enough to make 2014 the hottest year in recorded history, and 2015 could be even warmer than that. The 1997-98 super El Niņo was enough to boost global temperatures by nearly a quarter of a degree Celsius. If that scale of warming happens again, the world could approach a 1ēC departure from pre-industrial times as early as next year. As climate scientist James Hansen has warned, that’s around the highest that temperatures have ever been since human civilization began.
Indeed, even the forecast is already having an effect: An index of global food prices reached a 10-month high in March, blamed in part on shortages an El Niņo may exacerbate.
Here’s what else we could expect:
A severe drought continues to rage in and around Indonesia, which an El Niņo would likely worsen.
Peru’s anchovy catch may be significantly affected should a strong El Niņo materialize.
Australia’s ongoing battles with bush fires may be intensified once its dry season resumes later this year.
But perhaps the strangest impact so far has been in India, where monsoon forecasting is at the heart of national politics. The meteorology department there has accused U.S. weather forecasters of “spreading rumors” and colluding to ruin the Indian stock market by forecasting a return of El Niņo.
Top Comment
I predict in the next few years we'll hear "Global warming stopped in 2015" More...
-FoolishChemist
There’s a bit of good news, too: Hurricane seasons in the Atlantic tend to be less severe under this kind of forecast. And people in drought-stricken California could be forgiven if they’re crossing their fingers for a strong El Niņo, which is linked to some of the wettest years in state history. Still, it’s certainly no slam dunk that an El Niņo would be enough to end the crippling drought there or even bring above normal rainfall. And if the El Niņo ends up being as strong as current predictions indicate, there’s a chance it may even tip the scales from drought to deluge across the state, spurring damaging mudslides amid bursts of heavy rain. The two strongest El Niņos in the last 30 years—1982-83 and 1997-98—both caused widespread damage from flooding in California.